Gold decline accelerated sharply last week through 1500 psychological to close at 1476.1, even below 1478.3 medium term support. Outlook is not looking good. Initial bias will stay on the downside this week and deeper fall could now be seen to next key support level at 1400, which is close to long term projection level at 1398.3. On the upside, break of 1539.4 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming or outlook will stay bearish in gold.
In the bigger picture, last week's acceleration in this stage of fall is raising the chance that fall from 1923.7 is a long term down trend and is far from being over. Close attention will now be paid to 38.2% retracement of 681 to 1923.7 at 1449.0. Decisive break there should at least bring medium term fall to 61.8% retracement at 1155.7 and below. On the upside, break of 1616.5 is now needed to indicate medium term reversal or outlook will stay bearish.
In the long term picture, the break of 1478.3 support now raised the chance of long term reversal. Q2 and Q3 will now be critical gold. Further downside acceleration will send gold through 55 months EMA (now at 1383.6) decisively. And in that case, we'd likely see long term decline back to 681/1033.9 support zone. Meanwhile, strong rebound from the 55 months EMA will turn gold into sideway pattern instead.
Comex Gold Continuous Contract 4 Hours Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Daily Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Weekly Chart
Comex Gold Continuous Contract Monthly Chart
No comments:
Post a Comment