ពត៌មាននិងការព្យាករណ៏តំលៃមាស​សំរាប់ថ្ងៃ២២

Gold Ended Firmer in Thin Trading

22 Dec 2010	1st resistance	2nd resistance	3rd resistance
Today’s resistance US$	1391	1397	1403
	1st support	2nd support	3rd support
Today’s support US$	1380	1374	1368
Today’s pivot point US$	1386

The Day’s Story:

Gold finished its day a tad higher on Tuesday in a pre-holiday thin trading. Gold managed to keep its head high in a low volume trade and against stronger U.S dollar which did limit any upside in metal prices. Gold continued to seek strength at the back of European debt crisis as Portugal’s debt rating came under Moody’s radar. Korean military conflict was eased yesterday after North Korea announced that it was not going to act on its earlier threat of retaliation in response to South Korea’s military exercises. Gold traded in a narrow range in the absence of any market moving data. Yellow metal looks set to finish the year with around 25-30% of gains outperforming stocks, currencies and most commodities, answering the critics who did not see any value in precious metal. Most of its gains came amid low interest rates in U.S, rising commodity demand in China and debt crisis in Euro zone.

Stocks in U.S ended with modest gains after trading in a narrow range throughout the session ahead of holiday period and finished at their highest levels in more than two years.. The Dow Jones closed up 55 points at 11433; S&P 500 finished 8 point higher at 1255 while NASDAQ gained 18 points to finish its day at 2667. Volume remained low in the absence of any market moving economic data and as most traders have already closed their books for the year and ready to leave for holiday. Stocks have already gained 5% this month with S&P500 and NASDAQ rising for 13 out of 15 sessions this month so far and are set to record double digit gains for the year. Looking ahead, traders are optimistic about 2011 and see further gains in months ahead. Stocks in Europe also closed higher with Britain's FTSE 100 closing up by 1%, while DAX in Germany rose by 0.9% and France's CAC 40 closed with the gains of 1.1% to finish the day.

Eurozone debt crisis continued to make headlines on Tuesday providing some support to bullion prices as a result which has been the case for most part of this year.  Moody's downgraded Ireland's government bonds by five marks on Friday and had Spain on their watch list due to soaring debt of its banks and public. Yesterday, Moody’s put Portugal debt under review with a possibility of a downgrade in coming days. Adding fuel to the fire, Fitch Ratings also said it may lower Greece’s rating below investment grade. At the final European Union

Summit of the year, leaders agreed to provide a permanent crisis lending facility starting in 2013 after the temporary one expires, but more radical measures to help short-term problems weren't agreed upon. European debt contagion fears will keep providing support to bullion’s prices in 2011 unless market is satisfied with a concrete solution to the crisis by European Union. In other day’s developments, tensions between Korean neighbors were calmed as North Korea backed down of its earlier threats of retaliation easing fears of further tensions at least for now. Korean conflict will provide investors a reason to buy gold as a store of value in uncertain times unless a permanent solution is agreed upon by both sides.

U.S. dollar index continued its upward momentum and ended with modest gains on Tuesday finding support from safe haven buying interest at the back of European debt crisis. Euro came under severe selling pressure and fell further as common currency remained out of favor due to region’s debt crisis which has plagued U.S dollar’s main rival for most part of this year. Meanwhile, treasuries are at or near six months high, providing further support to greenback and limiting upside in precious metal. U.S dollar’s recent gains are partly because of market’s realization that U.S economy’s outlook in 2011 will be improved as stronger economic reports in recent weeks lifted investors’ confidence. Dollar and gold prices both ended in positive territory to finish the day. On charts, dollar has regained an upside technical momentum.

Gold and dollar’s inverse correlation weakened further on Tuesday as both moved in the same direction for third straight session.  Correlation between two assets has been erratic this year as both broke away from their organic inverse correlation relationship several times this year mainly due to heightened economic worries at the back of Euro zone debt crisis. Any relief in euro crisis, similar to what were seen during last couple of weeks, will push the euro higher and the dollar lower and be good for gold, as the two move inversely to each other. If a debt crisis flares up again and default is floated as an option for some countries, the euro could plummet in value and take gold with it. Safe haven buying, however, should create a floor of support for gold prices.

Gold prices could be more volatile towards the end of the year (similar to what we have been seeing in last few sessions) as profit-takers contend with "bargain-hunters" and those wanting to add gold to their portfolio before the New Year. During December, those traders selling gold future contracts must also deliver physical gold and the longs must pony up the cash which increases liquidity and volatility in the market. However, the end of the year traditionally brings with it less liquidity and greater potential for rapid shifts in price direction, meaning that gold could endure more setbacks before resuming its uptrend.

Yesterday’s Price Action:

Gold price started its Asian session with minor gains but went quiet as session progressed. Gold fluctuated near its previous close for most of Asian session. Gold reacted in similar manner with the start of the European session and remained stuck in its narrow intraday range. Gold price found a boost just before U.S market open and rose to its intraday high of $1392.2 an ounce. Those gains were quickly erased as markets in U.S started their trading sessions. Gold fell to its intraday low of $1380.8 an ounce in early U.S session. Bullion managed

to pare its intraday losses and closed just above its previous close at $1385.4 an ounce.

Other Metals:

Silver futures for March delivery closed up 4 cent to $29.39 an ounce on Tuesday.

Platinum futures for April delivery rose by $11.40 to $1,727.10 an ounce on NYMEX.

Palladium futures for March delivery rose by $8.30 to $753.05 an ounce.

N.Y. Copper for March delivery closed up 6 cents $4.27 a pound on Tuesday.

Gold (News and Views):

      February Comex gold closed up 2.70 at $1,388.80 an ounce on Tuesday.

      The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,383.00 on Tuesday compared to its previous P.M fixing $1,380.00.

      The world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose to 1298.940 tons on December 17 up from 1283.757 on December 16th.

      The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.06 to 80.69 on Tuesday.

      Crude Oil for January delivery rose by $0.45 to $89.82 on Tuesday on New York Mercantile Exchange.

      Gold hit its true peak on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation in 1980 dollars, that translates to an all-time record of $2,184.08 an ounce, in 2010 dollars.

      Speculators cut bullish positions in gold, silver and platinum in the week ended Dec. 14, according to government data. Managed-money accounts in gold futures and options saw liquidation of gross long positions of 8,886 contracts and an increase of 1,092 gross shorts, leaving them net-long gold 173,759 contracts. The producer category saw those traders increase gross longs and cut gross shorts, but they remain net-short. Swap dealers heightened exposure to both sides in gold, but they remain net-short.

      Non-commercial traders in the legacy report for gold trimmed positions on both sides, but cut many more gross longs. They cut 11,379 gross longs and 1,375 gross shorts, and are now net-long 241,424 contracts. Commercial traders cut gross shorts and added to gross longs, leaving them still net-short.

Factors Affecting Gold Price Yesterday:

“Sovereign-debt worries continue to weigh on the market, “said Matthew Zeman, a metal trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “Gold looks to move higher in the New Year.”

Stronger sentiment towards commodities is helping gold, Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said, adding: "On the other hand, some may prefer to take profits just before the year-end."

"Market consensus is that prices will go higher in the longer term. At the moment, the market is in a waiting stance,” Weinberg said.

"We are still in narrow trading but euro zone fears are creeping back into the investor agenda," said Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital.

"The downside is definitely limited with the euro zone back in focus, though I think the wider range will hold

until next year, with book squaring all but over before year-end."

Jewellery consumption by major buyers in India and elsewhere in Asia was soft, however. "People are waiting for Christmas and New Year," a dealer in Singapore said.

"Prices are probably going to remain flat," says Phil Streible, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock. "[But] there's still a lot of investor buying, there's still a lot of questions around the Eurozone ... so there is underlying support."

Gold Future Outlook:

“There’s still a backdrop of sovereign debt in Europe and inflation in China that will keep gold well bid,” said Adam Klopfenstein, a senior strategist at Lind-Waldock, a broker in Chicago.

Gains may be limited for the rest of the year, he said.

“We’re looking at a shallow correction in prices over the next two weeks,” Klopfenstein said. “Those who have caught a nice run in gold are looking to book profit.”

"I'd be very surprised to see it muster the courage to get through $1,400 and I'd also be surprised to see it sell off below $1360," said Fred Schoenstein, metals trader at Heraeus Precious Metals Management in New York.

Gold's modest rally on Monday doesn't look set to extend as investors chose to lock in profits for the end of the year and opted for stocks instead. George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Capital Markets, credited the rally to short-covering, "buying previously sold positions as open interest is not growing." Gero still sees $1,370 as a support area and $1,425 as resistance.

"Typical year end evening out patterns," says Gero, "as short rally precedes short sell-off and recovery, keeping uptrend intact."

Lind-Waldock's Streible has been nibbling away at futures positions "to be positioned before the start of the year because I think right out of the gate I think funds and allocation models are going to start coming out and are going to be more heavily weighted towards metals."

Technical analysis (by Jim Wyckoff):

Technically, February gold futures closed nearer the session high Tuesday. The gold market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained some upside momentum just recently. An overall 4.5-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $1,408.90.

Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $1,361.60.

First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 1,393.00 and then at $1,400.00.

Support is seen at Tuesday's low of $1,381.40 and then at this week's low of $1,376.60.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

Daily Gold and Silver Expected Range:

Gold: US$1375- $1402

Silver: US$28.70 - $29.92