ពត៌មាននិងការព្យាករណ៏តំលៃមាស​សំរាប់ថ្ងៃ២១

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Gold Upward Momentum Continues for Fourth Straight Session

Gold Ended Higher Due to its Safe Haven Demand

21 Dec 2010	1st resistance	2nd resistance	3rd resistance
Today’s resistance US$	1390	1396	1404
	1st support	2nd support	3rd support
Today’s support US$	1377	1369	1363
Today’s pivot point US$	1382

The Day’s Story:

Gold finished its day with decent gains as geopolitical and economic woes boosted the safe haven appeal for precious metal. Gold price advanced despite dollar’s gains although strengthening greenback did limit bullion’s gains. Gold found support due to tensions between Korean neighbors escalated as North threatened to retaliate in response to South Korea’s military exercises off the coast of Yeonpyeong. Further support came from ongoing Euro zone’s debt problems as rating agencies warned that Spain’s credit rating was also under review after an aggressive downgrade of Ireland’s bonds on Friday. As end of year is just a few sessions away, gold is poised to record its 10th annual again; price started at $268 an ounce in 2001 and has gone up 5 folds in the space of 10 years.

Stocks in U.S ended mixed after trading in a narrow range throughout the session ahead of holiday period. The Dow Jones closed down 14 points at 11478.13; S&P 500 finished 3 point higher at 1247.08 while NASDAQ edged up 6 points to finish its day at 2649.56. Volume remained low in the absence of any market moving economic data and as most traders have already closed their books for the year and ready to leave for holiday. Stocks have already gained 5% this month and are set to record double digit gains for the year. Looking ahead, traders are optimistic about 2011 and see further gains in months ahead. Stocks in Europe however, closed higher with Britain's FTSE 100 closing slightly up by 0.34%, while DAX in Germany rose by 0.52% and France's CAC 40 closed with the gains of 0.46% to finish the day.

Eurozone debt crisis continued to make headlines on Monday providing some support to bullion prices as result which has been the case for most part of this year.  Moody's downgraded Ireland's government bonds by five marks on Friday and now they have Spain on their watch list due to soaring debt of its banks and public. At the final European Union summit of the year, leaders agreed to provide a permanent crisis lending facility starting in 2013 after the temporary one expires, but more radical measures to help short-term problems weren't agreed upon. On the other hand, China’s expected move to hike its key interest rate also remains a lingering worry for gold bulls as any such move by China before year end will be bearish for gold. Analysts

however, believe that a rise in interest rate will cause short term correction and will not affect gold prices to a great extent. There are signs that monetary policy might not be as tight as feared. China will probably target about 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in new loans next year, level with its 2010 target, a leading official newspaper said. In other day’s developments, tensions between Korean neighbors were fuelled as South Korea went ahead with its planned military exercises but this morning North backed down of its earlier threats of retaliation easing fears of further tensions. Korean conflict will provide investors a reason to buy gold as a safe haven unless a permanent solution is agreed upon by both sides.

U.S. dollar index ended with decent gains on Monday and benefited from safe haven buying interest at the back of European financial situation and Korea’s developments. Euro came under severe selling pressure and fell 0.5% as common currency remained out of favor due to region’s debt crisis which has plagued U.S dollar’s main rival for most part of this year. Meanwhile, treasuries are at or near six months high, providing further support to greenback and limiting upside in precious metal. U.S dollar’s recent gains are partly because of market’s realization that U.S economy’s outlook in 2011 will be improved as stronger economic reports in recent weeks lifted investors’ confidence. Dollar and gold prices both ended in positive territory to finish the day. On charts, dollar has regained an upside technical momentum.

Gold and dollar’s inverse correlation weakened further on Monday as both moved in the same direction.  Correlation between two assets has been erratic this year as both broke away from their organic inverse correlation relationship several times this year mainly due to heightened economic worries at the back of Euro zone debt crisis. Any relief in euro crisis, similar to what were seen during last couple of weeks, will push the euro higher and the dollar lower and be good for gold, as the two move inversely to each other. If a debt crisis flares up again and default is floated as an option for some countries, the euro could plummet in value and take gold with it. Safe haven buying, however, should create a floor of support for gold prices.

Gold prices could be more volatile towards the end of the year (similar to what we have been seeing in last few sessions) as profit-takers contend with "bargain-hunters" and those wanting to add gold to their portfolio before the New Year. During December, those traders selling gold future contracts must also deliver physical gold and the longs must pony up the cash which increases liquidity and volatility in the market. However, the end of the year traditionally brings with it less liquidity and greater potential for rapid shifts in price direction, meaning that gold could endure more setbacks before resuming its uptrend.

Yesterday’s Price Action:

Gold price started its Asian session with minor gains and continued to make its way up during first session of the day. Gold hit its intraday peak of $1388 an ounce in early hours of European trade but pared those gains as European session progressed. Gold fell into red zone just before markets in North America started their trading day. Bullion’s losses were deepened in the early hours of U.S session and price fell close to its intraday low of $1375.5 an ounce. Gold managed to make its way up once again and landed closer to its session high. Gold finished its day with modest gains at $1385 an ounce.

Other Metals:

Silver futures for March delivery closed up 22 cent to $29.36 an ounce on Monday.

Platinum futures for January delivery rose by $12.50 to $1,711.00 an ounce on NYMEX.

Palladium futures for March delivery rose by $6.15 to $744.75 an ounce.

N.Y. Copper for March delivery closed up 5 cents $4.21 a pound on Monday.

Gold (News and Views):

      February Comex gold closed up 6.90 at $1,386.10 an ounce on Monday.

      The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,380.00 on Monday compared to its previous P.M fixing $1,368.50.

      The world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose to 1298.940 tons on December 17 up from 1283.757 on December 16th.

      The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.27 to 80.63 on Monday.

      Crude Oil for January delivery rose by $1.16 to $89.37 on Monday on New York Mercantile Exchange.

      Gold hit its true peak on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation in 1980 dollars, that translates to an all-time record of $2,184.08 an ounce, in 2010 dollars.

      Speculators cut bullish positions in gold, silver and platinum in the week ended Dec. 14, according to government data. Managed-money accounts in gold futures and options saw liquidation of gross long positions of 8,886 contracts and an increase of 1,092 gross shorts, leaving them net-long gold 173,759 contracts. The producer category saw those traders increase gross longs and cut gross shorts, but they remain net-short. Swap dealers heightened exposure to both sides in gold, but they remain net-short.

      Non-commercial traders in the legacy report for gold trimmed positions on both sides, but cut many more gross longs. They cut 11,379 gross longs and 1,375 gross shorts, and are now net-long 241,424 contracts. Commercial traders cut gross shorts and added to gross longs, leaving them still net-short.

Factors Affecting Gold Price Yesterday:

“During this period of window-dressing we will see more support from the investment side, not only from new investors but also from ones that have been involved,” said Eugen Weinberg, head of commodities research at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.

Gold’s dip below the psychologically important $1,400 level — and its proximity to its all-time high in euros — is also probably attracting momentum traders.

“As long as the positive up trend is holding we will see more buying, since ‘the trend is your friend,’” he said

“Fresh fund buying was noted in the wake of the ... EU debt situation and Korean peninsula-inflated jitters,” wrote Jon Nadler, senior analyst at Kitco Metals Inc. North America.

“Overall, it looks like consolidation. I don’t see any major driver. That’s partly due to a shortened trading week in the U.S. I wouldn’t be surprised to see gold remaining relatively calm this week,” said Carlos Sanchez, precious metals analyst at CPM Group in New York. He noted that the U.S. economic calendar will also be

light for the remainder of 2010.

“It looks to have caught a bit of a safe haven bid,” said Citigroup analyst David Thurtell. “But it’s very quiet. Gold has traded a very small range since an hour after the Asian open.” He also said he expected the metal to remain in a relatively narrow range into year-end.

“Most funds have stopped for the year and won’t come back until the New Year,” he said.

Gold Future Outlook:

Based on the calendar, the metals markets have moved into what RBC Capital Markets calls the “Twilight Zone.” This is the period of light trading around the Christmas and New Year holidays. “Liquidity has already fallen significantly and will be likely remain so over the next two weeks, with activity dominated by choppy sideways trading until year-end,” RBC says. “But, if an unforeseen political event occurs, then moves on the metals could be very erratic and cause a major price move as overall market positioning remains heavily one sided, i.e. long.”

"Further pockets of profit-taking ... are likely in the run-up to year-end but as has been seen this morning the mix of economic and geo-political woes will continue to underpin the complex," says James Moore, research analyst at fastmarkets.com.

David Morgan, founder of Silver-Investor.com, thinks that $1,400 gold prices might be done for the year. "This time of year most traders square their books ... I'm flat personally ... I'm happy just to rest out the rest of this year." January could see a flurry of activity as traders buy back some of their gold positions.

Weinberg said he anticipates more demand for gold for the latter part of the month and into the new year as portfolio managers take some of their year-end profits and buy assets that have been gaining, to burnish their quarterly performance in what’s known as year-end “window dressing.” Gold should also benefit as managers make new allocations into the commodities sector.

“There seems to be an overwhelming belief that the market, as it is now, is pointing higher, but we need to see the third of January come first and see how it plays out,” said Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen.

Technical analysis (by Jim Wyckoff):

Technically, February gold futures prices closed near the session high Monday. The gold market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. An overall 4.5-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, prices have been trending lower the past two weeks.

Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $1,408.90.

Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $1,361.60.

First resistance is seen at 1,390.00 and then at $1,400.00.

Support is seen at $1,380.00 and then at $1,372.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Daily Gold and Silver Expected Range:

Gold: US$1372- $1402

Silver: US$28.65 - $29.92