ពត៌មាននិងការព្យាករណ៏តំលៃមាស​សំរាប់ថ្ងៃ១៥

Gold Finished Marginally Higher In A Roller Coaster Ride

15 Dec 2010	1st resistance	2nd resistance	3rd resistance
Today’s resistance US$	1405	1415	1422
	1st support	2nd support	3rd support
Today’s support US$	1389	1382	1373
Today’s pivot point US$	1398

The Day’s Story:

Gold ended its Tuesday session with modest gains finishing below critical $1400 level after spending most of its time in 1400 territory during the session. Earlier, gold rose to $1408 at the back of weaker U.S dollar but U.S economic data boosted the appeal for greenback as PPI numbers suggest that inflation was not the factor to be concerned about at least for now. Gold price tried twice to break and hold $1400 level but both time met with profit taking which dragged the prices back down under $1400 level which will remain an important level to watch for until the end of this year. Gold’s medium to long term outlook remains bullish according to many analysts due to certain underlying factors. Fed’s monthly meeting ended with a neutral statement and caused no surprises and as a result had no impact on gold prices. Gold started below $300 an ounce back in year 2000 and has appreciated by almost 500% since. Many market gurus believe there is still lot of steam left in this Bull Run and looking for $2000 mark in coming years.

Stocks in U.S erased most of their gains in final hour of the session but managed to finish in green. The Dow Jones closed up 48 points at 11476, its highest close since September 2008; S&P 500 finished 1 point higher at 1242 while NASDAQ edged up 3 points to finish its day at 2627. U.S stocks rallied earlier in the session at the back of better than expected Retail Sales figures which rose by 0.8% against the analysts’ expectation of 0.6% in November. The producer price index increased 0.8% in November against market forecast of 0.5%. In another report, Commerce Department revealed business inventories rose by 0.7% which fell short of analysts’ estimate of 1%. Later in the afternoon, the Federal Reserve held interest rates near 0% as expected. In a statement following the decision FED maintained its rhetoric on the economy, saying that although it is recovering, the pace is not fast enough to combat the unemployment rate. Stocks in Europe however, closed mixed with Britain's FTSE 100 rising 0.52%, while DAX in Germany fell 0.03% and France's CAC 40 closed up by 0.27% to finish the day.

Market is also focusing at the final vote on Bush-Era tax cuts which was to go through Congress on Tuesday. Although tax deal will put more cash in Americans pockets but it will extend Governments already alarmingly

high deficit. The gold landscape still seems ripe for safe-haven buying especially with ratings agency Moody's threatening to cut the U.S.'s triple-A credit rating if the new tax cut bill was approved by Congress, which looks set to happen. On the other hand, China’s expected move to hike its key interest rate also remains a factor in gold’s limited upside in recent sessions as any such move by China before year end will be bearish for gold. Analysts however, believe that a rise in interest rate will cause short term correction and will not affect gold prices to a great extent. There are signs that monetary policy might not be as  tight as feared. China will probably target about 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) in new loans next year, level with its 2010 target, a leading official newspaper said.

This week holds some significant economic events that may impact bullion’s price in short term. We have had Retail Sales and PPI figures out on Tuesday which caused gold to pare most of its intraday gains. Looking ahead, Consumer prices and Industrial Production figures will be out on Wednesday. CPI figures could cause some sharp price moves in gold prices. Some important construction data along with Initial jobless claims numbers will determine Thursday’s trading before a quiet Friday. In addition, the Federal Reserve will release a policy statement on Tuesday.

U.S. dollar index ended its day with marginal gains after fluctuating between gains and losses during the session. Euro pared all of its intraday gains in later part of the session and ended in red. Euro’s losses added further to the selling pressure in gold prices. U.S dollar’s recent gains are partly because of market’s realization that U.S economy’s outlook in 2011 will be improved due to some positive data released in recent weeks. Dollar’s 5 week uptrend on charts has taken a hit in recent sessions as debt crisis in Europe have calmed which boosted dollar’s appeal as a safe haven destination for jittery investors.

Gold and dollar’s inverse correlation normalized on Tuesday as both moved in the opposite directions.  Any relief in euro crisis, similar to what were seen during last couple of weeks, will push the euro higher and the dollar lower and be good for gold, as the two move inversely to each other. If a debt crisis flares up again and default is floated as an option for some countries, the euro could plummet in value and take gold with it. Safe haven buying, however, should create a floor of support for gold prices.

Gold prices could be more volatile towards the end of the year (similar to what we have been seeing in last few sessions) as profit-takers contend with "bargain-hunters" and those wanting to add gold to their portfolio before the New Year. During December, those traders selling gold future contracts must also deliver physical gold and the longs must pony up the cash which increases liquidity and volatility in the market. However, the end of the year traditionally brings with it less liquidity and greater potential for rapid shifts in price direction, meaning that gold could endure more setbacks before resuming its uptrend.

Yesterday’s Price Action:

Gold price started its Tuesday’s session with strong gains and gold climbed above psychological $1400 level by mid Asian session.. Gold held on to its gains during early European trading hours and peaked to its intraday

high of $1407.9 an ounce by mid European session. Gold price came under selling pressure as economic data from U.S started filtering in just before the markets in North America opened for their trading sessions. Gold

price seesawed during U.S hours with price falling to its intraday low of $1391.7 an ounce and regaining $1400 territory later in the session. Gold once again gave away $1400 zone during afterhours trading and finished just above its previous close at £1395.9 an ounce.

Other Metals:

Silver futures for March delivery closed up 16 cent to $29.79 an ounce on Tuesday.

Platinum futures for January delivery rose by $16.60 to $1,713.90 an ounce on NYMEX.

Palladium futures for March delivery rose by $15.75 to $768.20 an ounce.

N.Y. Copper for March delivery closed unchanged to $4.21 a pound on Tuesday.

Gold (News and Views):

      February Comex gold closed up 6.30 at $1,404.30 an ounce on Tuesday.

      The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,399.00 on Tuesday compared to its previous P.M fixing $1,375.25.

      The world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell to 1286.794 tons on December 14 down from 1289.830 on December 10th.

      The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.12 to 79.43 on Tuesday.

      Crude Oil for January delivery fell $0.33 to $88.25 on Tuesday on New York Mercantile Exchange.

      Gold hit its true peak on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation in 1980 dollars, that translates to an all-time record of $2,184.08 an ounce, in 2010 dollars.

      In the COMEX futures markets, speculative buyers have increased net longs, or bullish positions, by 2.3 percent in the week to Dec. 7, while silver's net longs dipped 3.2percent, CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report showed.

      COMEX gold and silver futures volume were about 50 percent below their 30-day averages, preliminary Reuters data showed. Some trading desks and funds have closed their books ahead of year end.

Factors Affecting Gold Price Yesterday:

Some traders may be booking profits above $1,400 in Comex gold to avoid getting caught if the People’s Bank of China should hike interest rates, says Mike Daly, gold and silver specialist with PFGBest. Furthermore, as the holidays and year-end approach, still more traders and fund managers may opt to post profits on their books, Daly says. “During this same period we may notice a drop in volume as many traders prefer the sidelines during the holiday season,” he says.

“Gold is benefiting on the one hand from inflation-led buying in Asia, and from safe-haven-led buying particularly in North America where there is a lack of confidence in issues like the budget deficit being solved,” said HSBC analyst James Steel. “It is benefiting for different reasons in different regions.”

Comex gold pared early gains after strong U.S. November economic data, including retail sales and the Producer Price Index, says George Gero, vice president and precious-metals strategist with RBC Capital Markets Global Futures. The data prompted an uptick in market-set interest rates, which usually “tempers” gold buyers, Gero says.

"Gold is following up momentum with the selling in dollar towards the year end," said a Singapore-based trader. "We are resuming the uptrend, and there are not many down days to be expected."

"Many fund managers are already enjoying the sunshine. Between now and the end of the year fund activities will diminish," said Ronald Leung, a physical dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong Kong.

“We expect European debt concerns, continuing implications of quantitative easing and an ongoing safety drive to fuel investor demand,” Garran said. “Absolute faith in fiat currencies remains shaky. Gold is currently behaving as a currency rather than a commodity.”

Gold Future Outlook:

"I think we will probably probe and test that $1,400 range but really I think we've got to get over $1,416," says Phil Streible, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock.

"If we get a two day close over that I think we're going to advance making new all-time highs." Streible thinks the new high could be $1,464 whereas his support level is $1,331.

Any close below $1,331, he says, could cause a flurry of momentum selling and gold might be forced to retest its $1,270 support level. But for now gold seems intent on probing new highs helped Tuesday by safe-haven buying.

Zachary Oxman, managing director at TrendMax Futures said that gold should show some strength into year end, thanks to more individual and fund buying.

“If we can close above $1,400 today, that is a bullish sign,” he said in an email interview.

“The Fed will leave the door open to additional bond purchases, and Europe’s debt problem will rear its ugly head again,” said Matthew Zeman, a metal trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “You’ll see people flocking to gold again.”

Gold climbed overnight as the U.S. dollar softened, say analysts with Goldessential.com. “Some short covering was seen around $1,405 overnight, amidst thin liquidity,” says Matthias Detremmerie, founder of Goldessential.com. He says “the move was to a certain extent technically led, with further stamina coming from the EUR/USD holding up nicely after its Monday rally and with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields coming off a bit.” Detremmerie says there might be some follow-through buying Tuesday, should the euro eke out further gains. However, “there’s very sturdy resistance around $1,420” and “we still favor a return to $1,352 before the end of year,”

Technical Analysis (by Jim Wyckoff):

Technically,  February gold futures prices closed near mid-range in choppy trading. The gold market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have regained some fresh upside momentum this week. A 4.5-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.

Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above strong technical resistance at the all-time high of $1,432.50.

Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,372.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of $1,408.90 and then at $1,420.00.

Support is seen at Tuesday's low of $1,392.40 and then this week's low of at $1,380.80.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Daily Gold and Silver Expected Range:

Gold: US$1380- $1415

Silver: US$29.00 - $30.55