ពត៌មាននិងការព្យាករណ៏តំលៃមាស​សំរាប់ថ្ងៃ ២ធ្នុ

Gold Ended Marginally Higher as Improved Risk Appetite Reduced Safe Haven Demand

02 Dec 2010	1st resistance	2nd resistance	3rd resistance
Today’s resistance US$	1396	1404	1411
	1st support	2nd support	3rd support
Today’s support US$	1381	1374	1365
Today’s pivot point US$	1389

The Day’s Story:

Gold finished marginally higher in Wednesday session as improved risk appetite saw investors going for stocks and higher yielding currencies at the back of positive economic data from U.S. Gold’s earlier rally fizzled out and ended just above its breakeven point. Softer dollar did help bullion to stay in positive territory as euro rose sharply higher against greenback. Eurozone debt contagion fears were over-shadowed by improved outlook for U.S growth in yesterday’s trading but investors remain concerned about the health of Eurozone economy as it could falter the global economic recovery if situation gets any worse. Gold is up by 26% this year and looks set to post its 10th annual gain. Gold has outperformed stocks, currencies and most commodities this year so far.

U.S indexes finished sharply higher after two days of losses at the back of some positive data from U.S and around the globe. The Dow Jones industrial average soared 249 points or 2.3% to close at 11,256. The S&P 500 jumped 25 points or 2.2% to 1,206. The NASDAQ added 51 points or 2% to 2,549. Some upbeat economic reports before the start of U.S session helped stocks to open sharply higher. Stocks gained further momentum by report that Goldman Sachs raised its U.S growth forecast for next year to 2.7% from 1.9%. Stocks in Europe also finished strongly with Britain's FTSE 100 rising 2%, the DAX in Germany added 2.6% and France's CAC 40 ticked up 1.6%.

Earlier, ADP report data showed an unexpectedly high gain of 93,000 private sector jobs in November, marking the biggest rise in 3 years. In a separate report, the ISM index of manufacturing activity fell down slightly in November to 56.6 from 56.9 the month before. Any reading above 50 signals expansion in the sector. Another report revealed that construction spending rose 0.7% in October, beating analysts' expectations who were expecting a fall of 0.5%. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a snapshot of economic conditions across the central bank's 12 districts, showed that growth continued to improve in most U.S. regions from early October to mid-November. Meanwhile, investors also welcomed a robust reading on manufacturing activity in China, which helped lift shares of major U.S. multinationals, as well as companies in the industrial and

materials sectors.

Market will be watching closely the ECB’s policy statement at the end of its monthly scheduled meeting today. Analysts are expecting some sort of stimulus package to be announced to help recover struggling Eurozone economy. Some increased price volatility can be expected after ECB statement. Other important data to be released today is Initial Jobless Claims from U.S. However, Investors main focus is Friday’s Non-Farm payroll report before the market open

The Friday Non-Farm payroll report which is the arguably the most Important economic report for financial markets will give further clues about U.S jobs market which is still hovering near double digit unemployment rate despite official data indicating U.S economy out of the recession. Market is expecting non-farm payroll numbers to rise by 165,000 in November. Better than expected numbers could help stocks to resume their uptrend enabling bullion to tag along as well. A disappointing jobs figure could trigger safe haven buying interest in gold so gold may remain supported regardless of the outcome on Friday.

U.S. dollar index ended weaker after days of gains as improved economic outlook boosted investors risk tolerance. Dollar’s safe haven appeal took a hit due to improved global economic outlook as investors put aside European debt worries which have been the main catalyst for greenback in recent weeks. Technical analysts suggest the dollar index has put in a near term market low due to a boost in its safe haven demand at the back of crisis in Europe. Gold however, managed to stay in positive territory borrowing some support from softer dollar due to their inverse correlation which has had a bumpy ride in recent weeks since European debt crisis drew attention once again.

Gold and Dollar move in opposite directions to each other due to their inverse correlation as dollar weakness enhances demand for dollar denominated assets for holders of other currencies. Both however, can travel in the same direction at time of heightened economic uncertainty as was the case in first half of this year during Greece’s debt crisis. Similar trend has been followed since problems in Ireland emerged few weeks ago.

Ireland has agreed on a bailout package from EU and IMF to help its economy out of the woods, a move that cheered investors up initially. The focus was quickly shifted from Ireland to Portugal and much bigger player Spain as they could be next in line to ask for help. In latest developments, Italy and Belgium have been added to that list of countries. Questions that raise in minds are how badly affected these countries are and what other countries are going to be added to that growing list as most countries do have debt issues to some extent. It will be impossible to bailout all those countries if situation gets worse so steps must be taken to contain and address the issue in a manner that these kinds of disasters could be minimized in severity or stopped altogether in future. Until market is satisfied with such a solution, gold price will remain well supported.

Gold prices could be more volatile towards the end of the year as profit-takers contend with "bargain-hunters" and those wanting to add gold to their portfolio before the New Year. During December, those traders selling

gold future contracts must also deliver physical gold and the longs must pony up the cash which increases liquidity and volatility in the market.

Gold price extended its gains from previous session on Wednesday during early Asian trading hours. Gold remained buoyant throughout Asian session. Bullion continued to travel towards North during early European session and peaked to its intraday high of $1396.8 an ounce by mid- European trade. Gold price came under pressure at that point as data from U.S started filtering in and fell back to negative territory for the first time during the day. Gold fell to its intraday low of $1381.8 an ounce during morning U.S session but managed to pare its intraday losses and finished its day a tad higher at $1387.6 an ounce.

Other Metals:

Silver futures for March delivery closed up 20 cent to $28.41 an ounce on Wednesday.

Platinum futures for January delivery rose by $17.60 to $1,684.00 an ounce on NYMEX.

Palladium futures for March delivery rose by $29.30 to $732.30 an ounce.

N.Y. Copper for March delivery closed up 12 cents to $3.95 a pound on Wednesday.

Gold (News and Views):

      February Comex gold closed up $2.20 at $1,388.30 an ounce on Wednesday.

      The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,385.50 on Wednesday compared to its previous P.M fixing $1,383.50.

      The world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings rose to 1286.603 tons on November 29 up from 1285.084.

      The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.61 to 80.70 on Wednesday.

      Crude Oil for January delivery fell $2.64 to $86.75 on Wednesday on New York Mercantile Exchange.

      Gold hit its true peak on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation in 1980 dollars, that translates to an all-time record of $2,184.08 an ounce, in 2010 dollars.

      Speculative trading activity in some Commodity Futures Trading Commission reports shows these participants increased net-long positions in gold and silver, halting a slide seen in the past several weeks.

      In the disaggregated report, managed-money accounts in gold are now net-long 177,269 contracts, having increased their gross longs by 3,407 contracts and cut gross shorts by 795 contracts. Participants in the swap dealers and producer/merchant category remain net short, but both cut trimmed their gross shorts. Producers also cut gross longs, while swap dealers increased longs.

Factors Affecting Gold Price Yesterday:

Default speculation will continue to dominate sentiment in the coming days," says James Moore, analyst at thebulliondesk.com. "Short-term, bullion ... remains vulnerable to bouts of long liquidation ... [but] Europe's debt problems ... are supportive to further price gains."

“We have a weaker dollar, and that certainly helps,” said Bill O’Neill, one of the principals with LOGIC Advisors.

“There is a pretty buoyant tone in commodities in general,” spilling over into gold, O’Neill said. “It also raises the specter, if we continue to see these growth patterns, of inflation lurking in the background…And in general, we’re continuing to see demand for gold as the ultimate currency alternative.”

Also, gold is retaining its upward momentum after “a bit of technical breakout” as the market moved above the $1,370 region on Tuesday, the trader said. He cited a general willingness among investors to want to hold hard assets generally, with base metals and crude oil also higher lately.

“I think it was more interesting yesterday when the dollar was up and gold was up,” he said. “Now, the dollar is down and gold is up still. There is some oomph under there.”

Worries about European sovereign-debt—the main catalyst behind Tuesday’s rise in gold--remain, said Craig Ross, vice president of ApexFutures.com.

“There is more rolling out of currencies and into commodities, and in particular gold,” Ross said. “We think we have a really good chance of breaking the old highs in gold in the next couple of weeks.”

There is still an underlying concern about the development in Europe going forward, which can be reflected in the increase in the prices of credit default swaps in German government debt. Perhaps some people think gold doesn't look like a bad place for refuge," said Peter Buchanan, senior economist at CIBC World Markets.

Gold Future Outlook:

The U.S gold markets were quieter, but investors would do well in expecting a new record for gold before long, said Scott Meyers, a senior trading analyst with MF Global’s Pioneer Futures division in New York.

“Prices are in the uptrend, and a significant uptrend at that,” he said. Gold is likely to go for the $1,400-an-ounce mark by the end of this week and likely top the record high of $1,410.10 an ounce, set Nov. 9, shortly, he added.

“There’s an underlying feeling about this market that is still very, very bullish,” Meyers said.

Earlier Wednesday, analysts at Goldman Sachs said gold futures are likely to peak in 2012 near $1,750 an ounce.

“As we look toward 2012, we find it timely to reiterate our view that at current price levels gold remains a compelling trade, but not a long-term investment,” the analysts said.

Next year, gold is expected to continue to rally towards Goldman’s 12-month target of $1,690 an ounce as low U.S. interest rates are likely to continue, the analysts said.

Scott Redler, chief strategic officer at T3Live.com, who trades the gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares, sees gold prices between $1,600-$1,800 in 2011 and a solid floor between $1,310-$1,320 an ounce.

"I do see this channel that we've been in for a month, a month and half with the potential of a

head-and-shoulders top formation, which right now we're in the right side of ... I am in tier one now [in the GLD]."

Gold may average $1,500 next year and $1,600 in 2012, Anne- Laure Tremblay, a London-based analyst at BNP Paribas SA, saidin a report.

Technical Analysis (By David Banister):

Excerpted from TMTF November 28th:

Gold has been consolidating other than a spike to an intermediate wave 3 top of $1424, for about 7 weeks or so now. It’s typical to see Fibonacci periods of time as part of consolidations whether it be an individual stock or a precious metal in this case.  Gold was overbought at the $1425 pivot highs a few weeks ago, and that terminated what I label a “wave 3″pattern. This led us into a 4th wave corrective pattern which we remain in now.  My worst case pivot low is expected at $1,321 and so far we have seen $1,331 an ounce and then an ensuing bounce to $1370 ranges.

In the intermediate term then, I’m looking for further consolidation likely for another week or so followed by a breakout over $1425 leading to my objectives of $1480-$1525 to complete the entire rally from the $1040 lows in February of this year.  Many are starting to get bearish on Gold and Silver up here, and to me that is bullish and indicative of “4th wave mentality”. In a 4th wave, there is growing bearish sentiment, but not so much as to topple the bull structure.

Below is my updated Gold forecast using a weekly chart, remember to Keep it Simple!

Daily Gold and Silver Expected Range:

Gold: US$1372- $1405

Silver: US$27.90 - $29.35