ពត៌មាននិងការព្យាករណ៏តំលៃមាស​សំរាប់ថ្ងៃ១៤

Gold Ended Higher as Dollar Weakened

14 Dec 2010	1st resistance	2nd resistance	3rd resistance
Today’s resistance US$	1402	1410	1421
	1st support	2nd support	3rd support
Today’s support US$	1383	1372	1363
Today’s pivot point US$	1391

The Day’s Story:

Gold started its week with decent gains on Monday after more than 2% of losses in previous week. Gold’s gains came at the back of weakening dollar as a result of their inverse correlation which seems to have normalized in last couple of sessions. Rising Crude Oil prices and China’s decision not to raise its key interest rate after Saturday’s inflation reading also boosted gold’s demand. Gold’s gains were halted later in the session due to rising Treasury bond and note yields which lured investors as their preferred money destination.  Gold came under severe selling pressure after peaking to its all time high of $1431 last week mainly due to profit taking from recent gains and concerns over China tightening its monetary policy. Gold is poised to finish the year with around 25% gains, outperforming equities, currencies and most commodities.

Stocks in U.S ended mixed in lackluster trading session in the absence of any economic report. The Dow Jones closed up 18 points at 11424; S&P 500 finished 1 point higher at 1241 while NASDAQ fell 13 points to finish its day at 2624. Market’s main focus was Bush-Era tax cuts which were to be decided by Senate later during the day after House Democrats opposed the deal in its current format late last week. Senate however gave a go ahead for tax cuts to end debate on any compromise. An important day lies ahead in terms of economic data which will shape the direction of stocks and gold as a result. Stocks in Europe however, closed higher with Britain's FTSE 100 rising 0.8%, the DAX in Germany rose 0.3% and France's CAC 40 closed up by 0.9% to finish the day.

Over the weekend, China reported that inflation rose to 5.1% during last month, a level which has not been seen in last two years. China increased its Reserve rate requirement for its banks on Friday effective from 20th of December for third time in last five weeks but left its key interest rate unchanged over the weekend. Most precious metals including gold dipped lower on Monday due to concerns that China will issue another interest rate hike over the weekend as government leaders and the heads of state-owned businesses meet for a three-day conference to determine the Asian nation’s economic policy for 2011. Market was expecting an aggressive action from Chinese Government to cool down inflation and since that decision was not taken, gold

Bulls took a sigh of relief because any such move will trigger a deeper correction. Some analysts however, believe a rate hike from China will not affect gold prices to a great extent due to other underlying bullish factors such as European debt issues, currency debasement and strong physical demand from India and China.

A slew of important economic data is due to be released this week. After a quiet Monday at economic front market will have two important pieces of data to judge on Tuesday as retail sales and PPI figures will be released. Later that day, U.S FOMC will announce its interest rate decision. Consumer prices and Industrial Production figures will be out on Wednesday. Some important construction data along with Initial jobless claims numbers will determine Thursday’s trading before a quiet Monday. In addition, the Federal Reserve will release a policy statement on Tuesday.

U.S. dollar index had a major setback in Monday’s trading losing over 1% of its value against basket of six major currencies. Euro emerged as a major winner regaining 1.4% of its value as concerns over European debt situation seem to have calmed at least for now. U.S dollar’s recent gains are partly because of market’s realization that U.S economy’s outlook in 2011 will be improved due to some positive data released last week. Although the euro is getting some relief Monday, Moody's is keeping Spain on its negative watch list, Ireland's parliament will vote on austerity measures on Wednesday and European Union officials are meeting Thursday and Friday to work on the next plan of attack to contain the debt crisis. Germany has vowed to maintain the euro, but has resisted expanding the current bailout fund or issuing join EU bonds.

Gold and dollar’s inverse correlation normalized on Monday as both moved in the opposite directions.  Any relief in euro crisis, similar to what were seen during last couple of weeks, will push the euro higher and the dollar lower and be good for gold, as the two move inversely to each other. If a debt crisis flares up again and default is floated as an option for some countries, the euro could plummet in value and take gold with it. Safe haven buying, however, should create a floor of support for gold prices.

Gold prices could be more volatile towards the end of the year (similar to what we have been seeing in last few sessions) as profit-takers contend with "bargain-hunters" and those wanting to add gold to their portfolio before the New Year. During December, those traders selling gold future contracts must also deliver physical gold and the longs must pony up the cash which increases liquidity and volatility in the market. However, the end of the year traditionally brings with it less liquidity and greater potential for rapid shifts in price direction, meaning that gold could endure more setbacks before resuming its uptrend.

Yesterday’s Price Action:

Gold price started its Monday’s session with minor losses but quickly pared those losses and started to move towards North. Gold continued its upward journey throughout Asian session and early European hours but went into sideways mode for rest of European session. Gold’s next push came just before U.S market open and lifted prices to its intraday high of $1399.2 an ounce during early hours of U.S trading hours. Gold price finished its day with 0.8% gains at $1393.9 an ounce.

Other Metals:

Silver futures for March delivery closed up 102 cent to $29.62 an ounce on Monday.

Platinum futures for January delivery rose by $22.00 to $1,697.30 an ounce on NYMEX.

Palladium futures for March delivery rose by $19.75 to $752.45 an ounce.

N.Y. Copper for March delivery closed up 9 cents to $4.21 a pound on Monday.

Gold (News and Views):

      February Comex gold closed up 13.10 at $1,398.00 an ounce on Monday.

      The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,399.00 on Monday compared to its previous P.M fixing $1,375.25.

      The world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell to 1293.778 tons on December 09 down from 1295.296 a day earlier.

      The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.77 to 79.31 on Monday.

      Crude Oil for January delivery rose by $0.86 to $88.61 on Monday on New York Mercantile Exchange.

      Gold hit its true peak on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation in 1980 dollars, that translates to an all-time record of $2,184.08 an ounce, in 2010 dollars.

      In the COMEX futures markets, speculative buyers have increased net longs, or bullish positions, by 2.3 percent in the week to Dec. 7, while silver's net longs dipped 3.2percent, CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report showed.

      COMEX gold and silver futures volume were about 50 percent below their 30-day averages, preliminary Reuters data showed. Some trading desks and funds have closed their books ahead of year end.

Factors Affecting Gold Price Yesterday:

“A lack of bad news is good news. People were thinking they would raise rates, perhaps before the data, and they did raise the bank reserve requirement -- but that’s not viewed as the heavy artillery,” said Peter Buchanan, senior economist and commodities strategist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto.

The "increasing inflation pressure in China creates a positive environment to future bullion gains with the metals to remain underpinned by dip-buying," writes James Moore, analyst at thebulliondesk.com in his daily metals report.

Frank McGhee, head precious metals trader of Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago, said the prospect of a deal to extend U.S. tax cuts, which will increase fiscal deficit and could lead to inflation, underpinned gold.

Investment demand for the metal is definitely there, “said Wallace Ng, executive director at ABN Amro Bank NV in Hong Kong, said today by phone.

Gold Future Outlook:

“We expect a low U.S. real interest rate environment will continue in 2011, particularly given the resumption of quantitative easing measures in the U.S., and expect gold prices to continue to climb” into next year, Goldman analysts said in the report. Gold will peak in 2012, they said.

Moore also sites uncertainty over Eurozone debt as another factor which will continue to support higher gold prices. During times of crises, gold is bought as a safe-haven asset. While the metal is vulnerable to profit-taking as investors may be forced to protect themselves against losses in other assets, threats of default and restructuring will prop up prices.

George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Capital Markets, continued "to think [of] $1,375 [as] support and $1,425 [as] resistance

"I think perhaps we might have a couple sell offs," says Phil Streible, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock, "but I still think that prices are ultimately going to wind up near $1,650" at the end of 2011.

Adam Hewison, president of MarketClub.com, said gold could rise further after breaking above key resistance at $1,394 announce on a spot basis, which triggered a buy signal according to his technical models.

Hewison, however, said gains near year end are vulnerable to pullbacks as a small buy order could lift gold sharply without significant volume as most traders are out.

Technical Analysis (by Jim Wyckoff):

Technically, February Comex gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained some fresh upside momentum Monday. A potentially near-term bearish minor pennant pattern was negated with Monday's solid price gains.

A 4.5-month-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart for gold.

Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above strong technical resistance at the all-time high of $1,432.50.

Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at $1,372.00. First resistance is seen at $1,405.40 and then at $1,410.00.

Support is seen at $1,390.00 and then Monday's low of at $1,380.80.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Daily Gold and Silver Expected Range:

Gold: US$1380- $1415

Silver: US$28.70 - $30.55