Gold recovered further last week but such recovery was weak and is still limited below 1619.7 minor resistance. Near term outlook stays bearish and recent fall from 1798.1 is still expected to continue. Below 1544.3 will target 1500 psychological level. Though, we'll be cautious of bottoming sign there. Meanwhile, sustained break of 1619.7 will indicate short term bottoming and bring rebound. But break of 1700 psychological level is needed to indicate reversal. Or risk will stay on the downside.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1923.7 high are viewed as a medium term consolidation pattern. There is no indication that such consolidation is finished, and more range trading could be seen. In any case, downside of any falling leg should be contained by 1478.3/1577.4 support zone and bring rebound. Meanwhile, break of 1792.7/1804.4 resistance zone will argue that the long term up trend is possibly resuming for a new high above 1923.7.
In the long term picture, with 1478.3 support intact, there is no change in the long term bullish outlook in gold. While some more medium term consolidation cannot be ruled out, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 2000 psychological level in the long run
