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News and gold strategy

After yesterday’s downside move, gold returned to trade around the 61.8% of CD from the AB=BC bullish pattern which is attempting to test 76.4% correction of the same leg at 1372.00, which might extend towards 1380.00-1384.00; the 88.6% correction. On the other hand, we should remain very cautious as the upside move that is expected to continue today is merely correctional for the preceding downside move from areas above 1400.00, A four-hour closing below 1344.00 signals the bearishness for gold once more.  

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1335.00 and key resistance now at 1395.00.

The short term trend is to the downside targeting 1208.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1485.00 remain intact.

Support	1358.00	1352.00	1348.00	1340.00	1335.00
Resistance	1366.00	1372.00	1376.00	1380.00	1384.00
Recommendation	Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying gold around 1358.00 targeting 1395.00 and stop with four-hour below 1344.00 might be appropriate

News and gold strategy

After yesterday’s downside move, gold returned to trade around the 61.8% of CD from the AB=BC bullish pattern which is attempting to test 76.4% correction of the same leg at 1372.00, which might extend towards 1380.00-1384.00; the 88.6% correction. On the other hand, we should remain very cautious as the upside move that is expected to continue today is merely correctional for the preceding downside move from areas above 1400.00, A four-hour closing below 1344.00 signals the bearishness for gold once more.  

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1335.00 and key resistance now at 1395.00.

The short term trend is to the downside targeting 1208.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1485.00 remain intact.

Support	1358.00	1352.00	1348.00	1340.00	1335.00
Resistance	1366.00	1372.00	1376.00	1380.00	1384.00
Recommendation	Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying gold around 1358.00 targeting 1395.00 and stop with four-hour below 1344.00 might be appropriate

News and gold strategy

The metal is trading sideways but steadily moving above the 61.8% correction of CD from the bullish AB=CD pattern at 1360.00-1358.00. Stochastic unloaded some of the negativity, and accordingly gold might move to the upside today aiming at 76.4% correction at 1372.00, where stability above those areas will extend the bullishness towards 1380.00-1384.00 shown above. The bullish expectations require steady trading above 1344.00 over intraday basis and generally stability above 1322.00.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1335.00 and key resistance now at 1395.00.

The short term trend is to the downside targeting 1208.00 per ounce as far as areas of 1485.00 remain intact.

Support	1358.00	1352.00	1348.00	1342.00	1335.00
Resistance	1366.00	1372.00	1376.00	1380.00	1384.00
Recommendation	Based on the charts and explanations above, our opinion is buying gold around 1360.00 targeting 1395.00 and stop with four-hour below 1344.00 might be appropriate

News and gold strategy

Gold Fell Near 4 Month Low Due to Technical Selling

28 Jan 2011	1st resistance	2nd resistance	3rd resistance
Today’s resistance US$	1337	1361	1375
	1st support	2nd support	3rd support
Today’s support US$	1300	1286	1262
Today’s pivot point US$	1324

The Day’s Story:

Gold came under severe selling pressure during U.S session and fell below a critical support level set on October 22 last year. Gold found a mild buying support after worse than expected initial jobless claims and durable goods orders but risk-on-trade took the luster away from precious metal. Weaker dollar couldn't bring the bulls back in the ring as bullion met the same fortune as greenback and crude oil on the day. Gold’s biggest Exchange Traded Fund SPDR Gold (GLD) was steady but after its worse one day decline of 31 tons on Tuesday combined with lack of buying interest has left extra supply in the market. Sell off was accelerated by Sell Stop orders which are automated orders set by traders to lock their profits or protect their capital if price moves against their desired direction. Gold Futures settled at their lowest level since Oct. 4, when the metal settled at $1,316.80 an ounce.

Some confidence was shaken due to remarks made by ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, that major central banks “are very united in purpose to maintain price stability” and anchor inflation expectations. Inflation touches a deep nerve in the gold market, as the metal is often seen as the ultimate store of wealth and a sure beneficiary of unbridled price increases.

 Gold's decline Thursday in the physical market just points to how influential gold ETFs can be. The futures market was also under pressure but not as badly as traders took a breather. It was the spot price though that has to absorb a lack of ETF buying. Bargain hunters along with Asian physical buyers ahead of Chinese New year caved in as price nose-dived because they did not want to be on the wrong side of the market. Gold, which rose 30 percent last year, has already fallen over 6 percent this month as investors took profits and put more cash into assets such as equities and industrial commodities. Gold lost 1.4% last week, marked by big dips and only modest gains in between and looks set to post its first monthly loss since July last year.

U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, finished marginally lower making it the fifth straight session of losses.  Dollar rose against Japanese Yen by as much as 1.1% as Japan’s sovereign debt rating was downgraded by Standard & Poor. Dollar however couldn’t win the battle against its main European counterpart after weaker than expected economic data from World’s biggest economy disappointed investors. Later, greenback managed to recover some ground following comments from European policy makers. Despite recent successful bond auctions and encouraging economic data, which dented the safe haven demand for both precious metal and dollar, stability in the region is not sustainable and Eurozone is not completely out of the woods according to analysts who believe more needs to be done to win investors confidence. Dollar bears hold a dominant position on technical charts and outlook remains bearish for greenback, which may limit the selling pressure in yellow metal due to their inverse correlation, which has had an erratic year so far in 2011

Gold's inverse correlation with the dollar turned negative once again as both assets ended in the same direction. Dollar denominated assets tend to move higher at dollar weakness as it makes them cheaper for holders of other currencies. But gold and dollar can break away from that norm at times of heightened economic uncertainty, which had been the case for most part of last year.

What Next?

In recent sessions, Gold has suffered from lack of safe haven appeal due to ease in Eurozone debt crisis and in the absence of any other significant geopolitical event. Gold losses were mainly at the back of technical selling and chartists believe it may fall to as low as 1270-65 which is the next important support level now that $1315 level has been breached.

Market will take hint from tonight's U.S GDP data and U. of Michigan Confidence numbers, which will have a great impact on USD and gold prices consequently.

Gold purchase in China and other Asian nations celebrating Chinese New Year has been providing floor for gold prices in recent days and will continue to do so until first week of February when Year of Rabbit kicks off. Cooling in China is another wild card for gold prices. The International Monetary Fund said it expects China to grow 9.6% in 2011 and 9.5% in 2012. If that is too hot for China, then more rate hikes are in the cards, which would pressure gold. But until the country tames inflation, gold still makes a good alternative to the yuan.

Futures traders said February gold could remain under pressure this week as rolling of positions from the February contract to April will still continue ahead of first notice day on Jan. 31.

Yesterday’s Price Action:

Gold price started its first session of the day with mild gains and rose to its intraday high of $1348 an ounce early during Asian trading hours. Gold however, quickly erased those gains and made its way towards south as the session progressed. Downward momentum carried through to European session and gold fell deep into red zone during European market hours. Bullion tried to recover some ground just before the U.S market open at the back of some disappointing economic data but a massive round of selling sent prices to almost 4 months low by mid U.S session. Precious metal fell to its intraday low of $1310.4 an ounce late in U.S session and closed just above its session low at $1313.7 an ounce.

Other Metals:

Silver futures for March delivery closed down 10 cents to $27.03 an ounce on Thursday.

Platinum futures for April delivery rose by $6.60 to $1,803.50 an ounce on NYMEX.

Palladium futures for March delivery rose by 8.90 to $813.50 an ounce.

N.Y. Copper for March delivery closed up 7 cents $4.34 a pound on Thursday.

Gold (News and Views):

      February Comex gold closed down 14.60 at $1,318.40 an ounce on Thursday.

      The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,334.50 on Thursday compared to its previous P.M fixing $1,328.00.

      The world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell 31.262 tons, the biggest one-day fall ever, to 1229.581 tons on January 25th.

      The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.05 to 77.71 on Thursday.

      Crude Oil for March delivery fell $1.69 to $85.64 on Thursday on New York Mercantile Exchange.

      Gold hit its true peak on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation in 1980 dollars, that translates to an all-time record of $2,184.08 an ounce, in 2010 dollars.

      Investor George Soros, in Davos, said in recent interviews that the rally in commodities may remain for "a couple of years" before the supply/demand picture levels out.

Factors Affecting Gold Price Yesterday (Analysts View):

"Investors that are trading tactically in the gold market have taken some profits away from some of the other products," says Will Rhind, head of U.S. operations for ETF Securities. "However, the more strategic long-term investor is still very much part of the gold story."

Part of Thursday's slip could also be related to sell stops, which means that traders sell when prices breach a certain level to lock in gains. "More sellers appeared after option expiration, which is not unusual," says George Gero, senior vice president at Lind-Waldock, "chart selling for now may continue until next week."

“The drop in gold prices [was] greeted by resurging physical demand,” noted commodity strategists at Barclays Capital.

“Barring short-term weakness, we remain constructive on gold over the course of the year given a number of key long-term investment drivers remain intact,” they added.

Gold Future Outlook:

James Moore, research analyst at fastmarkets.com, thinks that gold could test $1,265 if there is another rate hike and if gold plummets through the $1,315 level. "But, we still see the combination of rising inflation; possibility of double dip recession in the U.K., huge deficit issues in numerous economies and the effects of quantitative easing as bullish for gold over the mid-to-longer-term."

“The gold market remains vulnerable to more selling, as the ongoing fear of rising interest rates remains in place. The gold market might also remain off balance because of talk of excessive speculation in commodities at the Davos forum,” analysts at NS Futures said in a note to clients.

Gold has lost more than 7 percent in January, which would be its first monthly decline in six months. Gold's technical picture appeared to deteriorate after breaking below key 50- and 100-day moving averages.

Dennis Gartman, publisher of the Gartman Letter, said Thursday that spot gold's 150-day moving average at $1,307 an ounce should offer support, but he expected bullion to fall further to its long-term trend line at an area from $1,279 to $1,290 an ounce.

Technical Analysis (by Jim Wyckoff):

Technically, February Comex gold futures prices closed nearer the session low Thursday and scored a bearish "outside day" down on the daily bar chart. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted in gold recently. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. A bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern is also playing out on the daily bar chart.

Gold market bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $1,352.40 in February futures.

Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,325.00 and then at $1,332.00.

Support is seen at Thursday's low of $1,315.70 and then at $1,300.00.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

Daily Gold and Silver Expected Range:

Gold: US$1285- $1332

Silver: US$26.40 - $27.80

Chart Analysis:

In the first chart below you can see two important support levels broken since the start of this year.

Price has broken below lower Bollinger band badly and both lower and middle bands have turned lower due to recent price action.

We can see MACD is well established in Bearish zone and indicates further losses in the coming sessions.

RSI failed to make a Bullish divergence as price fell below its October levels indicated by white eclipse, which could have been a strong reversal signal, and now heading towards oversold level. RSI looks to fall further towards oversold territory pointing at further price losses.

Expect some resistance from bargain hunters from now to next support level of $1265-70.

Second chart shows Fibonacci levels on the chart. As we can see 61.8 level tried to provide some support in last three sessions but price broke below strongly yesterday and now heading for 1270 or 100% level.

Although charts are suggesting further price falls in coming sessions, a worsening European debt crisis or any other geopolitical event can change the course of the game. So please keep an eye on fundamentals along with charts.

Have a good Weekend.

News and gold strategy

Gold inclined as we expected, touching 1324.00 and it approached the first suggested technical target of the butterfly pattern. Today, we see chances for additional upside movement after some kind of correction to relieve Stochastic. The proposed technical targets of this pattern reside at 1360.00 and a stable move above it will take gold towards 1384.00. If it failed to stabilize above the harmonic resistance line -colored in blue- around 1355.00 areas of 1302.00-1298.00 could be visited.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1298.00 and key resistance now at 1384.00.

The general trend over the short term basis is to the downside targeting $1208.00 per ounce as far as areas of1485.00 remain intact.

---

Recommendation
Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, buying gold around 1330.00 targeting 1384.00 and stop loss with a four hour closing below 1298.00 might be appropriate.

News and gold strategy

The metal touched the PRZ of the harmonic formation at 1322.00, where it inclined, stabilizing above these levels. Now, we might witness a temporal bullishness as the pattern is bullish. If we made sure that the pattern is a butterfly, the entire bearishness might be stopped at 1298.00. Henceforth, we will start observing the price behaviors of achieving a potential upside recovery but we need further confirmation that the PRZ of 1322.00 is the point or we may visit 1298.00 first before seeing this reversal.

The trading range for today is among the key support at 1298.00 and key resistance now at 1366.00.

The general trend over the short term basis is to the downside, targeting $ 1208.00 per ounce as far as areas of1485.00 remain intact.

Support	1330.00	1322.00	1315.00	1310.00	1298.00
Resistance	1339.00	1344.00	1350.00	1355.00	1360.00
Recommendation	Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, staying aside until a clearer sign appears to pinpoint the upcoming big move.

News and gold strategy

Gold Finished Marginally Lower After Hitting Three Month Low

26 Jan 2011	1st resistance	2nd resistance	3rd resistance
Today’s resistance US$	1339	1347	1356
	1st support	2nd support	3rd support
Today’s support US$	1323	1315	1307
Today’s pivot point US$	1331

The Day’s Story:

Gold fell marginally down Tuesday after falling earlier to its lowest level in almost 3 months. UK's disappointing GDP data pressured commodities but a late recovery drove prices to near unchanged level as physical demand from Asia and some bargain hunting supported bullion prices during U.S session.  Dollar finished slightly lower after trading both sides of zero line helping reduce selling pressure in precious metal. Adding to the case against gold was strong demand at the euro zone rescue fund's first debt offer, which helped push the euro to two-month highs. Meanwhile, strong demand from Asian nations has been working in favor of gold prices reducing the chances of any deep correction ahead of Chinese New Year, a mega gold buying event. Options expiration Saturday forced many traders, who were short gold, to buy gold or the GLD to protect themselves against any losses. Now that options expiration is behind us, traders are abandoning their positions.

Gold has always been considered a hedge against inflation as people buy precious metal to protect their wealth against fiat currencies depreciation. World’s biggest gold consumer India followed China and Brazil and raised its key interest rate by 25 basis points yesterday in order to curb inflationary pressure, which has edged above 8% year over year basis. Such a hike would do little to change negative interest rate environment and move will not hurt gold’s safe haven appeal in the country. Recently, inflation worries have started to crawl into European economies as ECB’s Jean-Claude Trichet warned earlier this week that inflation pressures in the euro zone must be watched closely, and urged central bankers to guard against higher energy and food prices. In general, inflation is good for gold but it's hard to say how the inflation drama will play out for precious metals and gold in particular, as rising inflation could be double edge sword for gold prices. Central banks tend to hike their key interest rates to tame inflation and any such move by Western economies this year will be a major blow for bullion prices although chances of that are quite minimal especially after disappointing growth numbers from UK yesterday.

Bargain hunters who generally come to rescue bullion at price dips finally made their way in during U.S session when bullion fell near its three months low although response was not as great as it has been during previous price dips as they still want to see more price stability before they can utilize the latest price fall to its full potential. Gold, which rose 30 percent last year, has already fallen over 5 percent this month as investors took profits and put more cash into assets such as equities and industrial commodities. Gold lost 1.4% last week, marked by big dips the previous Monday and on Thursday and only modest gains in between and looks set to post its first monthly loss since July last year.

Stock markets in U.S ended mixed after making a late recovery from sharp losses earlier during the session as economic data from U.S and UK painted a rather bleak picture. U.S stocks reacted to worse than expected GDP numbers from UK and opened lower. Losses were deepened due to some disappointing corporate earnings during early part of the session. Before market open, the Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. markets revealed that slump in home prices has deepened; the index fell 1% in November compared with October. The day’s positive news came when the Conference Board said its index of consumer confidence rose to 60.6 in January, up from 53.3 in December. It was the highest level since May 2010 and came in stronger than expected. Stocks in Europe finished lower with Britain’s FTSE 100 closing down 0.44%, DAX in Germany skidded 0.12% and France's CAC 40 lost 0.34% of its value.

U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, finished marginally lower making it the sixth straight session of losses.  Dollar rose earlier against its counterparts but could not hold on to its minor intraday gains. The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) launched its first sale of bonds and market sources said demand, at 48 billion euros, dwarfed the 5 billion on offer. Bond sales did help Euro to cut its intraday losses late in the session. Concerns over Europe’s sovereign debt came to forefront when Spain said it needed $27 Billion to rescue its ailing banking structure although market did not buy that figure and believed lot more would be needed in this regard. Despite recent successful bond auctions of debt stricken nations and encouraging economic data, which dented the safe haven demand for both precious metal and dollar, stability in the region is not sustainable. Dollar’s near term technical outlook remains bearish and further decline in U.S currency could limit the losses in precious metal.

Gold's average hourly inverse correlation with the dollar weakened further as both ended in negative territory once again. Dollar denominated assets tend to move higher at dollar weakness as it makes them cheaper for holders of other currencies. But gold and dollar can break away from that norm at times of heightened economic uncertainty, which had been the case for most part of last year.

What Next?

Some important announcements will catch the interest of the market today when Bank of England meeting minutes are released. Later, Reserve Bank will announce its interest rate decision which does not hold any surprises but statement following the decision and wording used about economic outlook by FED will be scrutinized by market players and may affect dollar and gold prices consequently.

With latest developments in Europe and other possibilities of what can go wrong for global economic recovery, gold should recover some of its safe-haven characteristics. Over the short term, gold's selloff could bring traders into the market. Those waiting for gold to reach the $1,330-$1,315 support level could be tempted to put some money to work.

Gold purchase in China and other Asian nations celebrating Chinese New Year rises to its peak during this period; that buying has been providing floor for gold prices in recent days and will continue to do so until first week of February when Year of Rabbit kicks off.

Futures traders said February gold could remain under pressure this week as rolling of positions from the February contract to April will still continue ahead of first notice day on Jan. 31.

Yesterday’s Price Action:

Gold price started its first session of the week with minor gains and after peaking to its intraday high of $1338.6 very early in the session it spend most of Asian session in downward direction. Gold losses were deepened during early European session as UK GDP data put selling pressure on commodities. Gold fell to its intraday low of $1322.4 an ounce during early hours of European trade. Gold found support at this level and pared most of its losses during U.S session and closed its day with marginal losses at $1332.2 an ounce.

Other Metals:

Silver futures for March delivery closed down 54 cents to $26.81 an ounce on Tuesday.

Platinum futures for April delivery fell $32.30 to $1,787.30 an ounce on NYMEX.

Palladium futures for March delivery fell 31.80 to $784.75 an ounce.

N.Y. Copper for March delivery closed down 12 cents $4.23 a pound on Tuesday.

Gold (News and Views):

      February Comex gold closed down 12.20 at $1,332.30 an ounce on Tuesday.

      The London P.M. gold fixing was $1,324.00 on Tuesday compared to its previous P.M fixing $1,343.00.

      The world’s largest gold exchange-traded fund, New York’s SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings fell to

1260.843 tons on January 24th after rising more than 20 tons in previous session.

      The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.09 to 77.92 on Tuesday.

      Crude Oil for March delivery fell $1.68 to $86.19 on Tuesday on New York Mercantile Exchange.

      Gold hit its true peak on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation in 1980 dollars, that translates to an all-time record of $2,184.08 an ounce, in 2010 dollars.

      Assets in gold-backed exchange-traded products, or ETPs, dropped 31.01 metric tons to 2,043.09 tons yesterday, the lowest level since Aug. 10, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from 10 providers. Holdings reached a record 2,114.6 tons on Dec. 20.

Factors Affecting Gold Price Yesterday (Analysts View):

“The improved economic outlook over the past weeks has dimmed gold’s appeal as safe-haven investment, but concerns about inflation may continue to support,” said analysts at Richcomm Global in Dubai.

Continued selling after Monday’s close “lowered prices and pressure continued all night so more assets in gold were reallocated to stocks as the State of the Union [Tuesday] and [Wednesday’s Federal Reserve statement] keep investors away from precious metals for now,” said George Gero, a vice president at RBC Wealth Management, in emailed comments.

George Gero, wrote that "81,000 open interest came out of gold." Gero believes this will help bargain hunters get back into the market but they must be patient and willing to endure this shakeout.

“Money is being put to work in the equity markets right now,” said Charles Nedoss, a senior market strategist at Olympus Futures in Chicago.

"Nothing fundamentally has changed at all. It's just that too many investors have gotten long (bullish)," said Dennis Gartman, publisher of the Gartman Letter.

"The weakness in the past week and a half has made those late to the party uncomfortable, forcing them to sell. In the process, it will make the market healthy again," he said.

Gold Future Outlook:

Phil Streible, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock, is cautious on the gold market and is waiting for "critical levels of support like $1,320, $1,300 and $1,270. [I] might take a shot there. The key is you can't get overleveraged in this type of environment. If you are ... you definitely have to use those rallies to lighten up a little bit."

Today's selloff is more dramatic than just profit- taking, however, as gold is fumbling with its identity as a safe-haven asset. Ironically, the landscape is ripe for more crises which should prop up gold. "We believe the outlook for 2011 remains positive for gold as broader investment drivers remain intact," says Barclays Capital.

Long term, however, Charles Nedoss said he’s still positive about gold.

“The equity market is a little ahead of itself, jobs are still a big issue, the housing market is still very soft and vulnerable,” which would push gold back to its safe-haven status, he said.

“The Fed will likely stick with the current easing policy since it takes time for the U.S. economy to recover, given the high unemployment rate and falling house prices,” said Park Jong Beom, a trader at Tong Yang Futures Trading Co. in Seoul. “That means the dollar will remain bearish. Although many investors may stay wary during the Fed meeting, it’s likely that gold will get a boost once after the meeting is over.”

Analysts, however, expect gold's 10-year bull run to remain intact due to lingering economic uncertainty, a view confirmed by a comprehensive Reuters poll that called for an average price of $1,450 an ounce in 2011.

Technical Analysis (by Jim Wyckoff):

Technically, February Comex gold futures closed near mid-range and hit a fresh three-month low Tuesday. Serious near-term technical damage has been inflicted in gold recently. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. A bearish head-and-shoulders top reversal pattern is also playing out on the daily bar chart.

Bulls' next near-term upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at this week's high of $1,352.40.

Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of $1,338.00 and then at $1,345.00.

Support is seen at Tuesday's low of $1,321.90 and then at $1,317.40.

Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Daily Gold and Silver Expected Range:

Gold: US$1317- $1356

Silver: US$26.40 - $27.80

News and gold strategy

After the sharp decline last week, we see some positivity appearing with the weekly opening but we are still dominated by the harmonic formation- potential butterfly pattern-. This formation may take the metal towards 1322.00 and may extend towards 1298.00. The provided image explains the Fibonacci symmetry of the pattern;henceforth, the bearishness will be in favor during this week as far as trading remains below 1366.00 with an extended potential resistance at 1395.00.

The trading range for this week is among the key support at 1298.00 and key resistance now at 1395.00.

The general trend over the short term basis is to the downside, targeting $ 1208.00 per ounce as far as areas of1485.00 remain intact.

Support	1350.00	1344.00	1330.00	1322.00	1298.00
Resistance	1360.00	1365.00	1376.00	1388.00	1395.00
Recommendation	Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling gold around 1366.00 targeting 1298.00 and stop loss above 1395.00 might be appropriate.